From time to time, bets will be lost. It is inevitable since no selection system is 100% effective. What happens next sorts out the professionals from the amateurs and the successful from the unsuccessful.
Before bets are placed on horses, it is recommended that a betting bank is created. The creation of a betting bank is part of the discipline that is required of those who place bets on horses. The betting bank should contain sufficient funds to support all future betting activities but should not contain so much that it will cause financial hardship should it be completely lost.
Losing runs can quickly decimate a betting bank to the point where it is difficult, if not impossible, to recover the losses incurred without an outrageous run of good luck. Losing runs can occur at any time and without any warning whatsoever. In my opinion, it is foolhardy to remain ignorant of the existence of losing runs. Anyone who does so is courting with danger. So, let’s look at how we go about calculating how long the longest losing run of a system is likely to be.
How do we calculate whether a selection system is likely to be profitable or not in the long term? To calculate whether or not a laying selection system is profitable in the long term, we need two pieces of information: The first is the selection system’s strike rate and the second is the average odds of the losing bets.
Although the Strike Rate of a selection system is not the be-all-and-end-all, ignore it at your peril. The Strike Rate of a selection system is usually expressed as a percentage. To calculate it, the number of winning bets is divided by the total number of bets made. The result is then multiplied by 100 to convert it to a percentage.
At this point, we should now have a selection system or, at least, the tips from one. As was stated earlier, even a bad selection system is better than no selection system at all. The reason for this is that the results of even a bad system can be analysed, and valid conclusions drawn, whereas it is pointless analysing the results of a totally random system since the results of the analysis will also be totally random. As a result, any conclusions draw from the analysis will be irrelevant.
When a bet is placed on a horse, there are two choices: a selection system can be used to identify those horses which should be layed to lose or backed to win, or random amounts of money can be placed on randomly selected horses running in randomly selected races i.e. not use a selection system at all.